How Florida's war on tomatoes from Mexico could destroy Arizona jobs

A few months ago, the Florida Tomato Exchange — a conglomerate of large, corporate industrialized, Florida-based tomato growers and packers — filed a request with the U.S. Department of Commerce to terminate an agreement governing the importation of tomatoes to the United States.

The 2019 Tomato Suspension Agreement, based off a trade agreement first struck in 1996, is rarely talked about by anyone other than trade officials, distributors and farmers.

Its importance to the economy of Arizona, however, cannot be overstated.

If the Florida corporate farmers succeed in their request, Arizona stands to lose billions of dollars in annual economic activity and tens of thousands of Arizonans may soon find themselves out of work.

As mayor of Nogales, I implore the U.S. Department of Commerce to carefully consider the broader implications of its pending decision.

Florida thinks this trade is unfair. It's not

Florida’s request is based on the pretense that Mexican tomatoes, which make their way into the U.S. market via Arizona, benefit from unfair trade practices that allow them to sell higher quality tomatoes at lower prices.

Mexican grown and imported tomatoes benefit from not only a better natural environment as they grow but also from a mutually beneficial trading relationship with Arizona that gives them a competitive advantage over the Florida produce. 

In fact, it is this competitive advantage that inspired the prevailing trade agreement.

The 2019 agreement was negotiated to strike a balance between protecting the interests of U.S. tomato growers, treating importers justly and ensuring that American consumers can continue to access quality produce year-round.

Unlike Florida tomatoes, the Mexican tomatoes that Arizona brings into U.S. markets are ripened on the vine and come in a wide range of varieties that U.S. consumers prefer, such as the fresh grape and cherry tomatoes that we see on grocery store shelves today. 

Changing agreement could jack up prices

This well-calibrated agreement, updated multiple times since 1996, has fostered a beneficial economic environment for all parties, within and beyond the tomato trade.

Terminating it to the advantage of a few Florida megagrowers would undermine decades of cross-border cooperation and create grave economic consequences for Arizona, Texas and other states that depend on robust agricultural cooperation, and a trading relationship, with Mexico.

Nogales plays an important role as a key point for importing, packaging and distributing tomatoes and other Mexican produce to the U.S., ensuring a steady supply.

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Any disruptions would be highly detrimental to the city’s economy and the broader U.S. agricultural market, as tomatoes are a vital commodity used throughout the country year-round. 

The estimated cost of abandoning the current agreement was recently assessed in an alarming report by the Arizona State University Morrison School of Agribusiness.

The most immediate impact would be a significant price surge for American consumers.

The ASU assessment projects that tomato prices could soar 50% higher than current rates — a sizable increase for a staple food. American retailers would also be harmed by higher wholesale prices, with potential lost revenue of up to $7.53 billion.

Arizona also could see huge ripple effects

In the long term, these impacts could stretch across the state’s economy. Arizona is one of the largest beneficiaries of the agreement due to its significant import volume.

The ASU report estimates that exiting the long-standing agreement could trigger a decline in annual economic activity in Arizona of nearly $3.4 billion, risking more than 22,700 jobs in the state.

Agricultural and hospitality workers would bear the brunt of this impact, but the damage wouldn’t end there. 

Mexico is Arizona’s largest trade partner, with annual total trade already surpassing $26 billion in 2023.

Implementing baseless, protectionist policies at the behest of Florida growers would almost certainly result in Mexico imposing tariffs on U.S. exports, harming farmers in Arizona and across the country and jeopardizing an essential trade relationship. 

As the U.S. Department of Commerce evaluates Florida’s request, we hope more policy leaders across the state will similarly step up to ensure that President Biden and the White House not let the narrow interests of a small group in Florida tip the balance of this functioning agreement. 

The stakes are immense, and we must continue on a path of continuity, stability and shared prosperity that promotes positive trade and growth in Arizona and across our southern border.

Jorge Maldonado is the mayor of Nogales. Reach him at mayormaldonado@nogalesaz.gov.